3/27/2023 0 Comments Retrospect vs hindsight![]() ![]() Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotion. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349–358.įischhoff, B., Gonzalez, R. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299.įischhoff, B. Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Jungermann (Eds.), Contributions to decision making (Vol. Desirability and hindsight biases in predicting results of a multi-party election. Collective memory building in Wikipedia: The case of North African uprisings. Behavior Research Methods, 39, 175–191.įerron, M., & Massa, P. G*Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 59, 1662–1674.įaul, F., Erdfelder, E., Lang, A.-G., & Buchner, A. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 387–414.įallis, D. Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(3), 554–559.Įrdfelder, E., & Buchner, A. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147–168.ĭel Vicario, M. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 40, 325–343.Ĭhristensen-Szalanski, J. ![]() A comparison of hindsight bias in groups and individuals: The moderating role of plausibility. ![]() Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 262–275.Ĭhoi, D.-W., & Choi, I. Getting at the truth or getting along: Accuracy- versus impression-motivated heuristic and systematic processing. Assessing the accuracy and quality of Wikipedia entries compared to popular online encyclopaedias: A comparative preliminary study across disciplines in English, Spanish and Arabic. Journal of Cognitive Psychology, 26, 213–220.Ĭasebourne, I., Davies, C., Fernandes, M., & Norman, N. Political knowledge reduces hindsight memory distortion in election judgements. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62, 1899–1915.Ĭalvillo, D. Cultural bias in Wikipedia content on famous persons. ![]() Academy of Management Journal, 31, 628–641.Ĭallahan, E. Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Wikipedia as a data source for political scientists: Accuracy and completeness of coverage. How many hindsight biases are there? Cognition, 106, 1408–1440.īrown, A. British Journal of Social Psychology, 45, 149 – 160.īlank, H., Nestler, S., von Collani, G., & Fischer, V. Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. In Proceedings of the first international Wikimedia conference Wikimania. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 916–933.īellomi, F., & Bonato, R. Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: Testing cognitive reconstruction theories of the hindsight bias effect. Gelbukh (Ed.), Computational linguistics and intelligent text processing (pp. 277–288). Wikipedia vandalism detection: Combining natural language, metadata, and reputation features. Therefore, our findings are the first to demonstrate Wikipedia’s superiority over individuals when it comes to hindsight bias.Īdler, B. By controlling for the potential impact of participants’ own hindsight bias on their article ratings we can rule out alternative explanations of our findings. Applying Bayesian statistics, there was substantial support for the null hypothesis (i.e., no hindsight bias) in Wikipedia. In line with prior research and our hypotheses, we found a hindsight bias at the individual level but not in Wikipedia articles. In particular, we made use of a state election and surveyed one part of participants before and after the outcome and had other participants rate the corresponding Wikipedia article versions with regard to the extent to which the article was suggestive of a particular outcome and presented it as foreseeable and inevitable. The present study set out to answer this question by comparing individuals’ and Wikipedia’s representation of the very same event in foresight and hindsight. Although this might suggest Wikipedia articles to be less biased than individuals, alternative explanations had not been ruled out. A recent study with Wikipedia articles, however, found evidence for a hindsight bias only for disasters but not for any other event category (e.g., elections). Hindsight bias-the tendency to overestimate in hindsight what one knew in foresight-is a robust and pervasive human error. ![]()
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